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Dear America,
The Republicans in congress started the Obama years with six rounds in their political revolver, and they have fired all six at their collective foot already, though we won't know if they hit the mark until November. The first was their criticism of the bank bailout, in which they conveniently omitted the fact that the banks could put us into the conundrum that required the TARP only because of twenty years or more of Republican winnowing away of regulatory control of our financial system. The Second was their objection to the financial recovery legislation that pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reversing the pattern of job loss and now actually creating a flow in the right direction for the first time since the autumn before George Bush left office. The third was their opposition to the health care reform effort, which started out as the intention to create a "single payer system" like that in effect in the majority of the industrialized nations in western Europe and most of the rest of the world. They succeeded in killing it and forcing the Democrats and the Obama administration to settle for health insurance reform, which the Republican conservative complex (Rcc) then managed to mischaracterize to the extent that it is regarded in much of the nation as federal intrusiveness. But ultimately it will be seen as the ability to access healthcare for more than thirty million of our friends, relatives and neighbors who had to do without until now, necessitated by the Republicans decision to allow medical costs to go uncontrolled by refusing to allow universal health care. Fourth was their successful effort to impede progress in the areas of energy and environmental legislation. Frankly though, the profile of that effort never reached the level that the public noticed it, and until the smog is so thick that you can eat it and gasoline costs ten dollars a gallon, the public will ignore the issues anyway. Fifth was financial reform, which the Republicans managed to water down in significant ways that will become clearer as campaigning begins, specifically with regard to the Republicans' resistance to assessing the banks themselves to fund what was to be essentially an escrow account from which the government could take money to pay for liquidation of troubled banks, thus obviating future tax payer funded efforts. And sixth was campaign finance reform that would limit corporate electoral influence, which the Republicans in the Senate just recently filibustered to death. But that issue will be on the docket over and over again from now until November, so the Republicans will continually have to defend their allegiance to corporate America in order to gain the favor of popular America, no small feat I would venture.
That should have been the self-destructive end of it, but fortunately for the Democrats, the Republicans have now reloaded and they are about to fire round number seven. They did the Democrats the favor of protesting like stuck pigs about everything suggested by the liberal Democratic establishment on the issue of immigration reform; no matter what shape immigration reform legislation takes, there will be something in it for everyone to hate-- it was a no win issue for the Democrats anyway. So the fact that no bill ever reached the floor to get the attention of the electorate takes it off the slate of issues that will decide our next congress's character, and both the Republicans and the Democrats will be hurt by the failure to pass a law, each in a different constituency: its a wash. But the Bush tax cuts will expire on January 1, 2011, and the issue of extending them is about to hit the news. The tax cut package included not just a three or four percent reduction in the taxes of the richest five percent of Americans, it also included measures that reduced the taxes of those whose incomes were below $250,000-- the "middle class" that President Obama said would not experience tax increases under his administration. So, if the Bush tax cuts expire, while taxes on the rich will increase, so will taxes on the middle class, and that is shot number seven, which will be heard around the nation. I'm betting that the Republicans in congress, in particular in the Senate where they can stop legislation even though they are in the minority, think that they can extort extension of the tax cuts for the rich by preventing legislation to extend the middle class cuts unless the rich are included. But just between you and me, America, that dog won't hunt in the immortal words of our last Democratic president. He said those words to the Rcc and Newt Gingrich when they used the same tactic in attempting to extort approval of a draconian budget out of Mr. Clinton by refusing to fund continuing government operations until he signed the budget. The government shut down for a day or two and the public was outraged. Gingrich conceded the fight. That's going to look familiar in short order.
The Republicans in the Senate will no doubt claim that the Obama administration and the Democratic majority in both houses are responsible for impending tax hikes on the middle class because they did not negotiate and pass some form of extension of the Bush cuts. They are assuming that the public will not separate their tax cuts from those of the rich when they consider the issue. Put another way, the Republicans think that if they say that the choice was the Democrats' and that the Democrats decided not to extend the middle class cuts, the public will accept that claim at face value. But they are overreaching on two counts. First, the Democrats are not going to sit silent while they do so. It will be pointed out to the American people in every news cycle that the Democrats tried to pass a bill extending only the middle class tax cuts, but the Senate Republicans prevented it because the bill didn't include tax cuts for the rich-- a double whammy: a Republican finger in the eye of the middle class with a pat on the back for the rich. Second, even if the Democrats never say a word, the American people are not stupid. Between Republicans' support for campaign financing by corporations and their attempts to lower taxes for their CEO's, the Republicans will have a lot of explaining to do. It should be a good show. So break a leg, you Republicans. Break a leg.
Your friend,
Mike












